Tag Archives: Kyoto Protocol

No Kyoto Protocol for the United States

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No Kyoto Protocol for the United States: a minority of Americans don’t want it

As the lines at the Bella Center get longer, so do the prospects for any agreement in Copenhagen.



The crowds are growing substantially in numbers as the week goes on.

The crowds are growing substantially in numbers as the week goes on.



The developing world, including China, India and Brazil, insists that a modified Kyoto Protocol with new binding emissions targets for the industrialized nations, but not including the emerging industrial powers, is the only agreement they are willing to negotiate.

In the coming week there may be some movement and compromise concerning their own emissions by China, India and notably Brazil with its huge 1,000-member delegation (number 1 in size at COP15) to persuade the industrialized nations to strengthen the Kyoto Protocol—but the discussion is moot.



Delegates working into the night at the Bella Center

Delegates working into the night at the Bella Center



The industrialized nations in the current Kyoto Protocol, led by the European Union and likely most every other developed country, have no appetite and will not agree to new binding limits without the United States joining the Protocol—and in my opinion that is not going to happen.

There is no possible chance that the United States can join the Kyoto Protocol—the people, not the government, will simply not allow it.

The world may think that the government of the United States is the bad boy here. But as far as climate change is concerned, the people controlling the United States’ position are the growing minority of voters in the United States who want nothing to do with climate change negotiations. I’m talking about the skeptics, those people who do not believe climate change is happening and even people who just don’t want to know, and who like everyone else have direct access to their elected leaders. They tell their elected leaders what they want, not the other way round.

Concerning climate change negotiations the most important elected body is the United States Senate and its 100 Senators. They serve at the will of the people and risk losing their elected status if they do not adhere to the wishes of the people. This is known as democracy in action.



Activity in the area of Denmark's pavilion

Activity in the area of Denmark's pavilion



Now you might ask “why doesn’t the President just override them?”

Here’s where it gets tricky. The founding fathers gave the voice to the people in Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution of the United States stating that while the President can make Treaties, he can do so only with the Advice and Consent of the Senate. If the constituents of enough Senators wish to stop a Treaty they can do so. The Kyoto Protocol is just such a Treaty and can only be ratified by the Senate. As currently composed there are not enough votes in the Senate, driven by the will of a minority of Americans, to even contemplate joining the Kyoto Protocol.

The U.S. Senate will require at least the commitment of the developing world to binding emissions targets outside of the Kyoto Protocol to consider a new Treaty but even that is unlikely at this time.

A regulatory mechanism does exist, and based on a recent ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court, it has the potential to severely restrict greenhouse gas emissions from new sources. This is currently under rule development by the Environmental Protection Agency. At present it may be the best hope the world has to involve the U.S. in binding greenhouse gas emissions targets.

But it remains that the Kyoto Protocol is a non-starter for the United States no matter what the Parties might want at COP15.

A COP15 communique

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Here we are, Tuesday, Day 2 of COP15. Yesterday’s opening ceremony and formal opening of COP15 and MOP5 (the COP serving as the 5th Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol) are behind us and the work has begun in earnest to grapple with the text of what is being considered a Copenhagen accord.



Day 2 at COP15, Tuesday December 09, 2009

A few of the 30,000+ participants viewed from the media sky bridge.



For those in our public audience who are interested but don’t want to be bored out of their gourds on the whys and wherefores but would like to follow along with our posts I think it is important for you to have just a little understanding about the crucial role that two relatively obscure negotiating groups have on the final Copenhagen outcome.

I’m referring to the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) and the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA).

I know your eyes are starting to glaze over already but stay with me. Just keep the following notes close at hand when you’re reading our posts and you’ll understand clearly why Third Planet will be glued to all the meetings of AWG-KP and especially AWG-LCA.

So here’s the essential background our public audience needs:

  • The Conference of the Parties (COP) is the governing body of the international climate change treaty known as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
  • The treaty came into force in 1994, now numbers 194 member nations, and its text “encouraged” emissions reductions pending a future agreement to “commit” nations to binding emissions reductions.
  • The Kyoto Protocol, negotiated in 1997, established binding commitments but only for 37 industrialized nations and the European Community. There were no corresponding reduction requirements for the developing nations including China, India and Brazil. How this came about is a whole other story but better kept for another day.
  • The Protocol garnered sufficient signatures from industrialized nations to finally enter into force in 2005 and as of today, 190 nations have ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
  • The only industrialized nation not to have ratified is the United States.



International media interview area on the sky bridge above the COP15 hall area.

International media interview area on the sky bridge above the COP15 hall. Many of the TV interviews you see are taped here.



Why is Copenhagen so important?

  • Emissions reductions under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol must be met by 2012.
  • Many industrialized nations are not expected to meet their 2012 emissions reduction commitments which will likely make them subject to international financial penalties.
  • COP15 was designated two years ago as the Conference of the Parties to reach agreement on a more aggressive, strengthened second commitment period beginning in 2012.
  • COP13 in Bali two years ago established two working groups to:
    1. Hammer out the text for the second commitment period of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, and
    2. Hammer out the text for the “full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action”. i.e. finance, technology, capacity-building, adaptation, and mitigation. The latter to be discussed in closed informal sessions along the lines of: what to do about emissions from the United States, China, India, Brazil and all others?

So here we are at COP15 exactly 15 years after the Framework Convention on Climate Change came into force negotiating what could be the last hurrah to avoid abrupt climate changes caused by the escalation of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

The final texts of AWG-KP and AWG-LCA are the key to our climate future and that’s why over 30,000 individuals are attending COP15.

To give a sense of the importance attached to these negotiations let me offer just one personal interaction in today’s events:

It’s 7 PM, many groups of delegates are huddled together throughout the 16 catering venues in the Bella Center. I’m at my computer in one of the venues. At tables drawn together in front of me is a group that interests me. I’m told it’s the delegation from Mali. “Mali? How many delegates do they have?” 20. “They have 20 party delegates?” A quick search on the Internet and there they are: Mali, one of the poorest nations on Earth. And they have 20 party delegates! My how times have changed. I remember meeting a diplomat from Sudan at COP6 in The Hague. He was a meteorologist and his country’s only delegate. How much of a voice do you suppose he had? And at COP15 Mali has 20 delegates.

It all makes for an interesting two weeks I can tell you that.

Five possible COP15 outcomes

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A recently published COP15 briefing guide from the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), a London-based non-profit research institute, offers five possible outcomes from the COP15 negotiations beginning next week in Copenhagen.

If you know little about the climate change negotiations process, this briefing is a very good place to start.

Beyond the headlines of country emissions targets, and the much less-voiced need for genuine assistance to the developing world, lies the fact that as a community of nations — friend and foe alike — a new international agreement on how we will tackle climate change is in the works. And will be until one is agreed upon.

The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) , which came into force in 1994 with 192 Parties (nations) including the United States, is an evolutionary process.

On the 15-year road to Copenhagen, the Parties have ushered in the Kyoto Protocol, the first treaty attempt at binding global emissions targets, and today we’re seeking its improved successor.

What will its form take?

This briefing lays out the issues, the players, the hot topics and possible outcomes in concise style, and importantly to Third Planet, comes from the UK-based International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) an independent non-profit research institute working in the field of sustainable development since its launch in 1971 by one of our all-time favorites, Barbara Ward (1914-1981). (Barbara Ward, an economist, wrote Spaceship Earth in 1966, co-authored Only One Earth: The Care and Maintenance of a Small Planet with René Dubos in 1972, and wrote many other books on sustainable development. She was considered a pioneer in sustainable development long before the term came into popular use.)

The following comes directly from the IIED briefing.

Governments gather in Denmark in December 2009 for what is perhaps the most important meeting since the end of the second world war. December is the deadline they have set themselves for agreeing on action to tackle climate change, and the COP15 conference in Copenhagen is where hopes are high that a new global deal can be struck …

Negotiators in each [Ad Hoc Working Group] track must agree [to the] text for parties to the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol to adopt at COP15. Whatever happens, COP15 will have a fundamental impact for years as some of its possible outcomes are legally binding and others are not. – iied Briefing, November 2009

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

These are the five possible outcomes as seen by IIED:

  1. No agreement. COP15 could end without agreement, with the expectation that talks resume in 2010.
  2. A decision or set of decisions. This is the weakest agreed outcome, but could be combined with one of the following stronger outcomes.
  3. A political ‘implementing agreement’ that is not legally binding and through which each state decides its own goals and how to reach them according to domestic laws. This is favoured by the United States, but opponents say that unless the targets are internationally binding, and there is a compliance mechanism to enforce them, such an agreement will be flouted. Developing nations also fear that national approaches could allow developed nations to use domestic laws to discriminate against their exports if their production entails emissions.
  4. A single new legally binding agreement (Copenhagen Protocol) that replaces the Kyoto Protocol and includes additional issues such as adaptation to climate change impacts. Such an agreement could include mitigation commitments for the United States, plus actions for major developing nations.
  5. Two protocols. An amended Kyoto Protocol that improves on what has already been negotiated plus a new legally binding agreement as described above. Most developing nations want this.

LINK

Download the excellent IIED Briefing here:

http://www.iied.org/climate-change/media/cop15-for-journalists-guide-un-climate-change-summit