No Kyoto Protocol for the United States: a minority of Americans don’t want it

As the lines at the Bella Center get longer, so do the prospects for any agreement in Copenhagen.

The crowds are growing substantially in numbers as the week goes on.

The developing world, including China, India and Brazil, insists that a modified Kyoto Protocol with new binding emissions targets for the industrialized nations, but not including the emerging industrial powers, is the only agreement they are willing to negotiate.

In the coming week there may be some movement and compromise concerning their own emissions by China, India and notably Brazil with its huge 1,000-member delegation (number 1 in size at COP15) to persuade the industrialized nations to strengthen the Kyoto Protocol—but the discussion is moot.

Delegates working into the night at the Bella Center

The industrialized nations in the current Kyoto Protocol, led by the European Union and likely most every other developed country, have no appetite and will not agree to new binding limits without the United States joining the Protocol—and in my opinion that is not going to happen.

There is no possible chance that the United States can join the Kyoto Protocol—the people, not the government, will simply not allow it.

The world may think that the government of the United States is the bad boy here. But as far as climate change is concerned, the people controlling the United States’ position are the growing minority of voters in the United States who want nothing to do with climate change negotiations. I’m talking about the skeptics, those people who do not believe climate change is happening and even people who just don’t want to know, and who like everyone else have direct access to their elected leaders. They tell their elected leaders what they want, not the other way round.

Concerning climate change negotiations the most important elected body is the United States Senate and its 100 Senators. They serve at the will of the people and risk losing their elected status if they do not adhere to the wishes of the people. This is known as democracy in action.

Activity in the area of Denmark's pavilion

Now you might ask “why doesn’t the President just override them?”

Here’s where it gets tricky. The founding fathers gave the voice to the people in Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution of the United States stating that while the President can make Treaties, he can do so only with the Advice and Consent of the Senate. If the constituents of enough Senators wish to stop a Treaty they can do so. The Kyoto Protocol is just such a Treaty and can only be ratified by the Senate. As currently composed there are not enough votes in the Senate, driven by the will of a minority of Americans, to even contemplate joining the Kyoto Protocol.

The U.S. Senate will require at least the commitment of the developing world to binding emissions targets outside of the Kyoto Protocol to consider a new Treaty but even that is unlikely at this time.

A regulatory mechanism does exist, and based on a recent ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court, it has the potential to severely restrict greenhouse gas emissions from new sources. This is currently under rule development by the Environmental Protection Agency. At present it may be the best hope the world has to involve the U.S. in binding greenhouse gas emissions targets.

But it remains that the Kyoto Protocol is a non-starter for the United States no matter what the Parties might want at COP15.