Here we are, Tuesday, Day 2 of COP15. Yesterday’s opening ceremony and formal opening of COP15 and MOP5 (the COP serving as the 5th Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol) are behind us and the work has begun in earnest to grapple with the text of what is being considered a Copenhagen accord.

A few of the 30,000+ participants viewed from the media sky bridge.

For those in our public audience who are interested but don’t want to be bored out of their gourds on the whys and wherefores but would like to follow along with our posts I think it is important for you to have just a little understanding about the crucial role that two relatively obscure negotiating groups have on the final Copenhagen outcome.

I’m referring to the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) and the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA).

I know your eyes are starting to glaze over already but stay with me. Just keep the following notes close at hand when you’re reading our posts and you’ll understand clearly why Third Planet will be glued to all the meetings of AWG-KP and especially AWG-LCA.

So here’s the essential background our public audience needs:

• The Conference of the Parties (COP) is the governing body of the international climate change treaty known as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
• The treaty came into force in 1994, now numbers 194 member nations, and its text “encouraged” emissions reductions pending a future agreement to “commit” nations to binding emissions reductions.
• The Kyoto Protocol, negotiated in 1997, established binding commitments but only for 37 industrialized nations and the European Community. There were no corresponding reduction requirements for the developing nations including China, India and Brazil. How this came about is a whole other story but better kept for another day.
• The Protocol garnered sufficient signatures from industrialized nations to finally enter into force in 2005 and as of today, 190 nations have ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
• The only industrialized nation not to have ratified is the United States.

International media interview area on the sky bridge above the COP15 hall. Many of the TV interviews you see are taped here.

Why is Copenhagen so important?

• Emissions reductions under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol must be met by 2012.
• Many industrialized nations are not expected to meet their 2012 emissions reduction commitments which will likely make them subject to international financial penalties.
• COP15 was designated two years ago as the Conference of the Parties to reach agreement on a more aggressive, strengthened second commitment period beginning in 2012.
• COP13 in Bali two years ago established two working groups to:
  1. Hammer out the text for the second commitment period of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, and
  2. Hammer out the text for the “full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action”. i.e. finance, technology, capacity-building, adaptation, and mitigation. The latter to be discussed in closed informal sessions along the lines of: what to do about emissions from the United States, China, India, Brazil and all others?

So here we are at COP15 exactly 15 years after the Framework Convention on Climate Change came into force negotiating what could be the last hurrah to avoid abrupt climate changes caused by the escalation of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

The final texts of AWG-KP and AWG-LCA are the key to our climate future and that’s why over 30,000 individuals are attending COP15.

To give a sense of the importance attached to these negotiations let me offer just one personal interaction in today’s events:

It’s 7 PM, many groups of delegates are huddled together throughout the 16 catering venues in the Bella Center. I’m at my computer in one of the venues. At tables drawn together in front of me is a group that interests me. I’m told it’s the delegation from Mali. “Mali? How many delegates do they have?” 20. “They have 20 party delegates?” A quick search on the Internet and there they are: Mali, one of the poorest nations on Earth. And they have 20 party delegates! My how times have changed. I remember meeting a diplomat from Sudan at COP6 in The Hague. He was a meteorologist and his country’s only delegate. How much of a voice do you suppose he had? And at COP15 Mali has 20 delegates.

It all makes for an interesting two weeks I can tell you that.