Sunday’s news that there would not be a binding climate change agreement negotiated in Copenhagen prompted my friend Angela to write: “Won’t an agreement at the end of 2010 be too late vis-à-vis slowing down ocean acidification?”
Unfortunately the answer is “yes”, but it was too late years ago.
What we’re attempting to do now, at COP15 and beyond, is to slow the enemy down. Average global mean temperature rise over time is the enemy, and the rate at which the temperature rises can actually be considered the best indicator of how well or how bad we’re doing in our efforts. Increasing temperatures by 2°C is really bad but 6°C is catastrophic, and according to the authoritative World Energy Outlook 2009 reference scenario (business as usual) we’re headed to 6°C without a “complete and rapid transformation of the energy sector”.
But what does this technical gobbledygook really mean? How might we rewrite it in terms that more people can understand? I read a Public Agenda report recently where it said “Nearly 4 in 10 Americans (39 percent of respondents) cannot name a fossil fuel”. That statement is a clear indication of the challenges we face. And it’s downright scary. Given that public awareness is critically important to politics and climate change is a problem wanting a political solution, how do we reach more people in language they will understand?
Here’s a thought experiment.
Imagine you’re in Europe 900 years ago living in a fortress city, and the equivalent of the 2°C threat to our city is enemy invaders 2,000 foot soldiers strong. They’re a few years away from our global village but relentlessly marching toward us. Scouts tell us their numbers are being steadily reinforced and we can eventually expect a force of 6,000 attackers to lay a permanent siege on the city. (Yes, you got it, 6°C.) The threat is that our global village will be captured by the 6,000 occupiers and our lives changed forever in calamitous ways. At the planetary level that’s “hundreds of millions of people being displaced from their homes, massive water and food shortages, widespread mortality of ecosystems and species, and substantial human health risks” (WEO2009).
We know the only chance we have of survival is to slow down the advance of those first 2,000 enemy soldiers before they reach our walls, giving us time to work on our defenses. But we have been paralyzed in coming up with a defensive strategy. Many people don’t want to hear it, the scouts must be wrong, and many don’t even know the enemy exists.
But here we are. The enemy marches on and is becoming emboldened. Our scouts are reporting that without any organized resistance the enemy is picking up the pace of the assault.
They’re now on horses and galloping toward us.
19. November 2009 at 4:26 PM
Robert, an excellent article. One wonders just what it takes with the information that is available, for we humans to wake up to reality. Sticking our heads in the sand is not the way to go.
20. November 2009 at 7:31 PM
So they’re galloping toward us with spears held high. What can we do to really stop this? It’s not just the challenge of speaking to the masses, our global community leaders who meet and strategize around all this won’t commit to real and monumental changes. Without global cooperation to commit actions of real significance on a massive scale, we’re just blowing in the wind.
How does one demand and orchestrate a shift toward enlightened thinking and cooperation?
21. November 2009 at 12:58 PM
Dear Doreen and Catie and all others,
Local actions to conserve energy and reduce CO2 production do have an important impact. I know they may not seem like much at the time or place but they really do. For two reasons: Such actions, when achieved in a community with community support get attention from the media, also from politicians and sometimes business people. Secondly,They produce real reductions which is important. And finally, such actions become an example and an inspiration for others to follow, or a challenge to others who think they might be able to do better! That last is really important, to be uplifting, inspiring, and provide some idea of hope, to focus on what is good and true and worthwhile and uplifting helps the human spirit and does good for the planet. What are examples of local actions?
1. Get a green group together at your Church or other community gathering center and discuss what you can do to reduce the groups use of CO2, how you can coordinate recycling, and how you can spread the word. One key here is to involve the kids.
2. Start a local web research group that looks for what needs to be done and what local groups can do, set priorities, and decide among yourselves what you can do.
3. Write letters to the editor of the local paper or television station and tell them what you are doing, they are always looking for good stories. If the paper will not publish it, call the editorial board of the paper and ask them why they decided not to publish. Offer to write a longer op-ed piece for them.
4. Find out about businesses or local governments in your local area that need help in being more energy efficient and/or reducing their CO2 production. Offer to help them reduce and become more efficient. Better yet, put together a green group and go to the local business or government with several people and offer to help. Remember to always take along with you a positive, uplifting, and forthright attitude and prepared with accurate and truthful information about the subject at hand. The truth will get through eventually.
One local group, that is by state, is the Interfaith Power and Light. Check them out.
http://interfaithpower.org/
David
21. November 2009 at 2:38 PM
Attention-getting title and analogy, Robert. Bravo! You write in terms that those of us operating outside the professional realm of climate change can actually understand. I agree with both Doreen’s and Cate’s comments and appreciate David’s response. It is my solid belief that we must continue to “see” the result we desire, and that that vision propels us to act. Fear paralyzes.
23. November 2009 at 9:58 AM
Robert, I love your analogy.
We are fortunate to have good political support and grassroots movements in the Southeast, however in my opinion we are still struggling to engage massive effective action…lifestyle changes that support our global, regional and local goals because we still have those that are paralyzed.
To them I would say that when we talk about mitigation and adaptation we are simply talking about the implementation of best management practices, energy efficiencies and sustainable solutions…which will result in long term cost savings and better quality of life for our future generations. Isn’t that what we all want regardless of our political believes, regardless of our opinion about climate change, regardless of our academic attainment, regardless of our economic status?
I believe that our objective should not be to ensure that people can name a fossil fuel but that they understand the local, regional and global impacts of their personal actions…how the decisions they make daily…their lifestyle choices…affect the present and the future of developing countries…and guess what? OUR OWN!
In my opinion, once people become more aware…they will feel empowered to take action at all levels. Why? People go through a series of five stages in changing behavior (pre-contemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, maintenance/advocacy), it takes time to change and change is not linear.
I found an interesting study by the Yale Project on Climate Change titled: Global Warming’s Six Americas 2009: An Audience Segmentation Analysis, that describes six different audiences in America and how they respond to the issue of climate change in a different way. http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/images/files/GlobalWarmingsSixAmericas2009c.pdf
25. November 2009 at 12:14 AM
Hi Robert. Just back from working at the 9th World Wilderness Congress in Merida Mexico. While we were there, we drafted an MOU titled the Message From Merida. It was signed by the heads of most major Conservation Organizations and many others.
The fundamental message of the MOU is that Wilderness preservation, or the preservation of our remaining intact wild lands is fundamental to mitigating and/or reversing Climate Change. We expect that Wilderness will now be a key element to the discussions at Copenhagen.
Please check out the MOU and/or the discussions related to wilderness. Many of the signees and key players behind it will be there, including Cyril Kormos, the VP for Policy for the Wild Foundation. Keep your eyes out for him.
Hope all is well with you. I am home for 3 more weeks, fundraising for Beyond Boundaries! Happy Holidays, Shay
26. November 2009 at 6:28 AM
Dear all
You will be most welcome in Copenhagen. There are organized a lot of events and study tours, but before you come you could start on a study tour in cyber space visiting the official website: http://www.energymap.dk
If you visit the profile of Ramboll you will be able to study many efficient climate solutions, e.g. off shore wind farms, the district heating system in the greater Copenhagen, waste-to-energy CHP plants, biomass plants, large scale solar water heating, biogas, efficient buildings. See you in Copenhagen.